Depends, have a look on youtube at videos of people blowing subs, some last for 5 minutes, some blow instantly. I depends on amount of overpowering and amount of clipping. I can give x subwoofer 200RMS more, and it will be fine, but if it is even slightly clipped, it will blow after a minute. But if I also give x subwoofer 400RMS more, even if it's clean, it will still blow after a minute. But give x subwoofer rated wattage, but clipped and it may blow over a week of use.
Make sense?